E Y E W E A R, THE BLOG - FREEDOM MEANS BEING UNAFRAID TO WRITE WHAT YOU THINK

I am reminded of Cato's Guilty Men , the 1940 British best-selling polemic that established the 'appeasement' approach as wrong, and charged (Cato was three anonymous journalists, not a judge) the many men named as dolts or worse who had squandered the past ten years, and let a great evil rise unchecked. Churchill , newly elected to a national unity government, would save the day, and rid the top of the failed dead wood; Churchill did save the day, and nation, but he keep most of the top untrimmed. He was, after all, a Conservative. For then, think now. Ten years of NHS underfunding, and gross under-preparation for the pandemic, long-warned-of. For the 'Munich' agreement, and the deal, think of the 'herd immunity strategy' - or the late 'lockdown' - or indeed, the now unfortunate '20,000 deaths will be a good result claim' (oft-repeated). But who, then is Churchill ? In one sense, PM Boris is, because his return to power, as the newly-Christ...

A week ago, on the 14th, I predicted here we would likely see around 20,000 reported UK deaths, and between 160-200 k cases reported, of infection. As it turns out, the hospital reported deaths as of yesterday are closer to 17 k, and the reported cases are around 125 k. Now, since reports suggest community-based and care home deaths (unreported at this stage for these hospital NHS figures) add another 41% per cent to these already solemn and tragic figures, we probably are looking at over 20,000 UK deaths so far related to Covid-19; and at least 160,000 cases - though some studies suggest the number is closer to 1.6 million infected in the population. The government has had a mixed time of it - they have succeeded in acquiring more beds and ventilators than needed, and their ability to persuade the electorate to law-abide and stay in has been marvellous. Infection rates have seemingly begun to plateau, deaths are slowing - the lockdown has worked, the NHS has not buckled. Unfortunately...

Apologies for being late with the weekly pandemic report from London. We have just had a sunny Easter bank holiday weekend, and that meant four days when people could either break the law and potentially infect and kill people, or stay mainly indoors; or 'exercise' a lot in gardens, parks and streets. The police asked sunbathers and BBQers to 'move on'. The PM has second-homed it, but few mind, as he has survived. Meanwhile, the less impressive of his cabinet run the daily press briefings flanked by the scientists and medics who 8 weeks ago wanted herd immunity to rip through the country and kill off the weak, and who now solemnly demand we social distance to save the NHS. Hypocritical Oaf, as one headline said in a similar context. The good news is that though deaths, factoring in those in the community and care homes, is about 900 to 1,000 a day in the UK from Covid-19, the curve is flattening, it appears. This means my prediction from a week ago is somewhat off. I ha...

In some ways - this exceptionally sunny Palm Sunday in London - the news is almost good.  Good relative to the tragedies all around us. There were 621 deaths from Covid-19 in the UK in the last 24 hours; just under 50,000 reported cases, and just under 5,000 deaths. Last week, I predicted around 3,250 deaths for today, and around 65,000 reported cases, and said that if these or higher numbers were hit, we'd be in Italy style trouble. It is too early still to be sure, but this could suggest a slight levelling of the curve is taking effect, and that the peak may well come, as predicted by government scientists, in the next seven to ten days - that is around Easter. Sadly, the death rate is higher than even I anticipated, but it is still within a range that, as we can see now in Spain, can level off within a fortnight. The British prime minister is still ill, and his fiancée is recovering - we wish them a speedy recovery; the Queen is to address the nation tonight at 8 pm, for only th...

I t gives me no pleasure, in my weekly weekend update on the Covid-19 pandemic, to say that what I predicted last Sunday - that we would see 15,000 cases by 29 March, and at least 700 deaths - is to be the tragic case. Readers of this blog will know that I also stated that if we saw such a steep increase we could assume the curve was rising, precipitously. It raises the question, why did the government not put us into lockdown a week earlier? Unfortunately, the number of UK deaths currently stands, on the 28th of March, at 1,019, and there are 17,089 recorded cases. A new study suggests that the worst of this nightmare will be over on April 5th, Palm Sunday, with the peak declining thereafter, due to the social distancing having taken effect by then. I hope this is so, though this optimistic new study suggests less than 6,000 deaths will occur in the UK, a hopeful outcome that is belied by the Birmingham airport being repurposed as a mass morgue. If the UK needs ten new 'Nigh...

T his is my weekly summary of the pandemic, from a London perspective. My poem in the previous post expresses a sense of the emotions and images of the time. Here I just want to add that, unfortunately, what I wrote last Sunday is mostly accurate: If we have 5,000 cases in a week, and 500 deaths, we will know we are on a very bad path, and closer to the 'Italy scenario' than thought. Today, there are just over 5,000 reported cases in the United Kingdom; and over 230 deaths. The good news, such as it is, if one can use such empty phrases, is that the death rate is not as high as Italy's, though it is being recorded as 4.6%, a naïve number. There are probably at least 50,000 unreported infections now in the community, so the death rate is likely closer to .5% - still no comfort for the one in 200 people who will die this year because of the virus. If 80% are infected, that will be over 2 million of us in the UK. By March 29, on current form, there will, sadly, be o...