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OVER 5,000 CASES


This is my weekly summary of the pandemic, from a London perspective. My poem in the previous post expresses a sense of the emotions and images of the time.

Here I just want to add that, unfortunately, what I wrote last Sunday is mostly accurate:

If we have 5,000 cases in a week, and 500 deaths, we will know we are on a very bad path, and closer to the 'Italy scenario' than thought.

Today, there are just over 5,000 reported cases in the United Kingdom; and over 230 deaths. The good news, such as it is, if one can use such empty phrases, is that the death rate is not as high as Italy's, though it is being recorded as 4.6%, a naïve number. There are probably at least 50,000 unreported infections now in the community, so the death rate is likely closer to .5% - still no comfort for the one in 200 people who will die this year because of the virus. If 80% are infected, that will be over 2 million of us in the UK.

By March 29, on current form, there will, sadly, be over 15,000 reported cases, and around 700 deaths. If the numbers in a week are higher than that, then we will know the escalation has started, and the 'sombrero has not been flattened'.

The numbers explain the unprecedented laws, bailouts, draconian acts - none big or far enough yet, by the way, but getting there. The nation is not metaphorically on a war footing. IT IS ON A WAR FOOTING. In New York today, the Mayor said this was the worst time in America since The Great Depression; over here, we'd likely say the Blitz. Either way, thank god for the sun shining. I'll take that small miracle, with some soap and water.

Be safe. Practice social distancing, please. Stay indoors if you can.
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