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GREEN SHOOTS?

In some ways - this exceptionally sunny Palm Sunday in London - the news is almost good.  Good relative to the tragedies all around us. There were 621 deaths from Covid-19 in the UK in the last 24 hours; just under 50,000 reported cases, and just under 5,000 deaths. Last week, I predicted around 3,250 deaths for today, and around 65,000 reported cases, and said that if these or higher numbers were hit, we'd be in Italy style trouble. It is too early still to be sure, but this could suggest a slight levelling of the curve is taking effect, and that the peak may well come, as predicted by government scientists, in the next seven to ten days - that is around Easter. Sadly, the death rate is higher than even I anticipated, but it is still within a range that, as we can see now in Spain, can level off within a fortnight. The British prime minister is still ill, and his fiancée is recovering - we wish them a speedy recovery; the Queen is to address the nation tonight at 8 pm, for only the fourth time in her majesty's 68-year-reign, apparently to compare us to the Blitz generation and urge us to ever-better self-control and dedication.

In the sun, the parks have been rammed with shirkers and covidiots, spreading death and disease as if this was all a sick joke. Most Britons are being dedicated followers of the law, respecting the brave NHS workers, risking their lives, underequipped as they are. It seems likely that we shall see around 150,000 reported cases by next Sunday; and around 15,000 deaths. If the numbers are less than that, and they may well be closer to 12,000 deaths, the estimates of bringing this initial wave under control at less than 20,000 deaths may still just be possible - and the lockdown will have saved thousands of lives (maybe 200,000 or more); let's see what happens in Sweden; and then begin to worry about how the lockdown is eased up - and be concerned that the herd immunity strategy is not rolled out again. Be well, be safe. Stay in. Support the NHS. Save lives.
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