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| A nervous blogger |
Readers of this blog will know that, over the years, we have made a few predictions of war, or collapse, or doom, and they have not always panned out - though we did predict that Trump would win in 2016, and we suspect (sadly) he may beat Biden or Bernie later in 2020. But nothing in our experience since this blog began 15 or so years ago - a time that has seen exponential scientific, cultural and political change with the digital explosion, global warming crisis, and rise of populism - is as serious as the current imminent pandemic, Covid-19.
Many Brits adopt a stiff-upper-lip attitude, and Trump downplays the danger, but Covid-19 is not 'just a bad flu'; indeed, it is more like the more ruthless and effective brother of SARS. In today's Daily Telegraph (often a denier of scientific scare-mongering) one of the world's leading experts, a scientist in charge of developing the British vaccine push, says it scares him more than Ebola (which is hardly a friendly disease), and reminds him of the Spanish Flu of 1918. That influenza pandemic killed 50 million people - over 220,000 in the UK alone.
It is perhaps slightly comforting that the current viral mutation we are facing does not have the mortality rate of MERS - over 50%; it could have, though, and this reminds us that our global civilisation currently is basically 2-3 months away from collapse any time a deadly novel virus appears; this is because vaccines take no less than a year to develop - and in the case of the Cold virus, are never found, due to endless canny evolution.
Viruses are obligate parasites, which mean they do not prosper and spread unless their RNA or DNA can infiltrate human or animal vectors' cells, and cause coughs, sneezes and other aerosol eruptions, to allow the multiplying microbes to communicate, and take hold. They tend to like it when they kill fewer of their hosts - the common Cold is the smartest virus around, because it rarely kills; a host that dies cannot spread effectively.
This may mean that some day, Covid-19 gets milder. For now, only a fool would be nonchalant about a disease that kills between 1-5% of every adult human who gets it. Most experts claim the death rate is closer to 1% - but in people over 60 that shoots up to 3% - and older people face a one in six chance of dying. That's now. Once a million or more UK citizens are infected at once, with 300,000 requiring oxygen-beds and respirators, the death rate will skyrocket. The UK has only 15 emergency beds for the very sick affected by acute respiratory failure syndromes; so thousands will be left to die.
This is the calm before the storm, so there's still a lot of sarcasm, and doubt, among the UK population, but the general sentiment is now one of barely-controlled panic; this is not overreaction. The head of the WHO said this week this is 'not a drill' and even the PM has stated that British society is likely to be changed for 'several months'. Let us consider what has already happened, briefly, before discussing what will probably happen.
We have seen the James Bond movie postponed; we have seen 16 million Italians quarantined; Mecca closed to foreigners; the London and Paris book fairs cancelled; the Pope deliver his Mass on TV only; football matches played in empty stadia; ships unable to dock; hand gel and toilet paper sell out (in the UK there is now a 3-month wait for hand gel); surgeon's masks are impossible to buy; and schools are closed around the world. Stock markets have plunged; economies teeter on recession; and factories are closed. Over 100,000 humans have been infected since the outbreak began basically ten weeks ago. In a month, we would expect 1.5 million or so cases worldwide, and 54,000 deaths.
If a vaccine is discovered, tested, and manufactured, we may see one - with a miracle - rolled out by new year's day 2021 - but it could be as late as summer 2021 before we have a vaccine; IF. It is by no means sure we will find one.
Meanwhile, the contagion will spread - it is basically unstoppable so long as humans meet in public or private, and breathe near each other. Masks and hand-washing help, but only total isolation of entire communities can keep the epidemic numbers down - and even then, that is only a stop-gap measure. The evil choice is between accepting mass deaths, or accepting socioeconomic paralysis, decline, then collapse.
Children die barely so far, a small mercy. The young get off lightly, except they stand to be orphaned. People who are sociopaths may not mind their parents and grandparents dying, but the rest of us will suffer terrible bereavement this year. 2020 is to be seared on our memories, like few other years have been since the 1940s.
This is because the current estimate is that between 20 and 80 percent of the world population will catch Covid-19 this year. That's between 1.5 and 6 billion people. Of those, at least 1 percent will die (but that's with Western hospitals fully-stocked, before all the doctors are ill or dying). If the death rate is closer to 3.4%, we could see 100 millions deaths this year alone.
Now, in all of WW2, 70-85 million died, over many years. That was 3% of the world population. We are basically facing the same number of deaths packed into one year. A lot of these numbers seem impossible, but epidemiology is a science of trackable numbers. Viral rates don't tend to fluctuate that much. Those who say we have come far since 1918 forget, this is not a mere flu, and we still have no cure for when a body's own immune system goes haywire and starts eating itself up - which is what Covid-19 does, to 5-15% of its victims. This can mean mass organ failure.
Ebola was feared because it caused you to vomit blood and liquified organs; and its death rate is horrific; but it spread poorly. Covid-19 also antagonises the inner organs, but it is cunning and kills slowly. It does two very cruel things - it starts mild so it can be spread asymptomatically, and it takes weeks to kill the bed-ridden. This means it maximises contagion, over weeks; and it also takes up a lot of human energy to cope with each struggling, lingering human case.
This blog would like to imagine that the UK will be spared terrible things - like the collapse of Italian society, and that dystopian nightmare scenarios of food shortages, mass panic, soldiers in the streets, looting, riots, and collapse of law and order, with graves everywhere, will not, this time, happen. But it already has begun. The train has left the station, and it is difficult to be Panglossian. We'd balance calm cool optimism with a healthy dose of fortifying terror. We have a dreadful new enemy of humanity.
How could this play out in the UK? The British government has a calibrated action plan - Contain, Delay, Mitigate - with Research running as the fourth horseman of the fightback alongside. [The UK government predicts in their worst case scenario that 100,000-350,000 will die, suggesting they think between 10 and 35 million people will become infected; this is based on the assumption many cases are going undiagnosed, and that the death rate is lower than 3.4% and closer to 1%; our assumption here is that the death rate is higher than 1%.]
Bill Gates and many others are pouring money in, fast - unlike the AIDs epidemic, scientific and government recognition of the disease was blessedly present, pronto. Viruses peak, so we may expect a rapid acceleration of cases - maybe 1000 by Mothering Sunday in a fortnight in Britain; and 34 deaths. Any higher number so soon would be worse case bad.
By Mid-April, Easter Sunday, we may see 10,000 or so cases across the UK, and some cities or towns or regions isolated or quarantined. By Mid-May, we could have 140,000 cases, the NHS will be buckling, and over 4,500 people in the UK will have died. Everyone who can will work from home, and food will be delivered by soldiers. Theatres, cinemas, music concerts, all will be firmly shut. It will feel like a movie, and not a happy one.
Mid-June is where things get nightmarish. Two million cases, and over 70,000 dead. Society at breaking point, but bravely holding on. The peak hits in mid-July. 35 million infected. One million dead, or more. The UK will take years to get over this. Suddenly, cases begin to fall, because there are fewer people left alive to spread it, and 20% or so, including most children, have recovered easily or won't be infected.
By September, it is in steep decline - a handful of cases. 40 or more million people have had the disease in the UK, and about 1.5 million have died in the UK alone. Is this the black swan tipping point, the start of the end of modern life? Preppers think so. If not now, when? Let's hope for the best, and prepare for far, far worse.
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