TROUBLE IN AMERICA, AND IT'S EVEN WORSE, PROBABLY, IN THE UK...



Americans have a uniquely terrible president currently and unless they are careful he may win a second election. Even 8 years of Trump is dispiriting and damaging but eventually and soonish he will be gone. He may yet be impeached.

The UK is less lucky by far. Here we face a terrible disruption that is likely to last a generation or more. If we are fortunate we may recover by 2050.

This disruption is the Hydra-headed Brexit dilemma. If it goes through the UK will be far poorer culturally, economically and politically. And the union may break up, with conflict again on a more divided Irish island. If it fails to go through there may well be a terminal decline in mainstream democracy and a further rise in more extreme forms of populism. This is because the middle ground has been hollowed out and the far Left and far Right stand by to fill the vacuum and exploit the claims that democracy died when Brexit was not delivered.

At the most optimistic, Britain will become a low tax haven, a quasi-Singapore, but how this works for the farmers and factory workers is anyone’s guess. The falling pound might help exports. What lies ahead for the 99% will be an unpleasant land of avarice and inequality. The toffs will have their Eton Mess and eat it too.

More likely is a disintegrated UK within a decade of now - 2030 seeing a separated Scotland and a very different Ireland. England and Wales will form a Tory rump, evermore beholden to American policy and influence and too weak to resist a more dominant Russia.

Probably we will have a Farageist government within the decade to come or something approaching Leninism. Either will be bad for most of us though depending which way the voters swing the ruling party will either be more Islamophobic or more Anti-Semitic. Either way immigrants and minorities will be at the butt end and hate speech and crime will grow.

Is there a way out of this?

Sadly, the best option was probably the PM May deal - imperfect but just about bearable and nuanced enough to keep some semblance of normalcy.

I would like to predict a rosy outcome but our fates are now in the off-putting hands of Cummings the Take Back Control guru and Johnson the charismatic maestro of disaster capitalism.

If you own vast estates of land, or large amounts of gold, you will ride this out perhaps. For most others, our small island is shrinking in a most lamentable way.  It may end up a champagne cork bobbing on a sea of rough troubles.

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